Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)
Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a systematic methodology used to evaluate and quantify the risks associated with complex systems and processes. At Forward Thinking, we specialize in conducting PRA to support decision-making, enhance safety measures, and optimize operational reliability across various industries, including energy infrastructures and engineering systems.
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Probabilistic Risk Assessment involves analyzing potential hazards, their likelihood of occurrence, and the consequences they may entail. Unlike deterministic approaches that focus on single-point failures or scenarios, PRA considers the uncertainties inherent in complex systems by integrating probabilistic models and data-driven analyses. This comprehensive approach enables us to identify critical risk factors, prioritize mitigation efforts, and enhance overall system resilience.
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PRA Services
Hazard Identification
We systematically identify potential hazards and failure modes within the system, considering both internal and external factors that could impact safety and performance.
Risk Quantification and Mitigation
Through quantitative analysis, including statistical modeling, data analysis, and scenario simulations, we assess the likelihood of different scenarios occurring and their potential consequences to estimate risk levels accurately. Based on these findings, we develop tailored risk mitigation strategies and recommendations designed to reduce risk levels to acceptable thresholds while ensuring cost-effectiveness and operational feasibility.
Uncertainty Analysis
PRA acknowledges and quantifies uncertainties in data, assumptions, and models used during the assessment process. Sensitivity analysis helps identify key variables influencing risk outcomes.
Projects
Our team at Forward Thinking Company is composed of experts who have contributed to groundbreaking projects in their respective fields. While these projects were not executed under the Forward Thinking Company, they reflect the extensive experience and innovative approach our team brings to the table.
01
Oil and Gas Network PRA
We have developed a probabilistic risk assessment platform for gas networks, capable of identifying potential failure points based on the available historical sensor data on environmental, operational, and inspection information on gas pipelines. The potential points of failure provide: Inspection and proactive maintenance strategies to avoid any catastrophic failure in the system.
02
Gas-Fired Power Plants PRA
We have developed a probabilistic risk model for critical components in gas-fired power plants. This model is capable of:
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Identifying the critical set of components to avoid plant shut-off
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Provide optimal backup plant to increase system resilience
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Suggest optimal inspection and maintenance interval per component and type to maximize power generation
03
Substations PRA
We have performed probabilistic risk assessment for power utility substations. This includes the development of a hybrid casual model capable of quantifying the probability of failure of the substation. the outputs include:
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Identifying the most probable failure scenarios
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Identifying the most impactful components of system failure
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Propose preventive maintenance schedules
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Propose optimal inspection intervals
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Provide Pareto front/cost-efficient scenarios for substation improvement
04
Power Grid Wildfire PRA
We have developed a probabilistic risk assessment platform for wildfire risk quantification for power grids. The platform is capable of providing short-term risk assessment and mitigation plans such as PSPS, and long-term risk analysis and mitigation plans such as system hardening, undergrounding, and vegetation management.
